In March, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Was 50.9 Percent

In March, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 50.9 percent, up by 0.8 percentage point month-on-month, and stayed above the threshold for six consecutive months.

 In view of the sizes of enterprises, the PMI of large-sized enterprises was 51.4 percent, up by 0.1 percentage point month-on-month, continued to position above the threshold; that of medium-sized enterprises was 50.3 percent, up by 1.5 percentage point month-on-month and rose above the threshold; that of small-sized enterprises was 49.3 percent, up by 3.3 percentage point month-on-month, and was the highest point of the last 12 months, while still below the threshold.

In term of different areas, the PMI of eastern region was 51.3 percent, rose above the threshold, and 0.4 percentage points higher than that of national level; that of central region, western region and north-eastern region were 50.4, 50.6 and 50.4 percent respectively, and 0.5, 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points lower than that of national level respectively, all staying above the threshold.

In March, among the five sub-indices composing PMI, four sub-indices increased, while that of the other one sub-index decreased

Production index was above the threshold, which was 52.7 percent, increased 1.5 percentage points month-on-month, and was the highest point of the last 10 months, which indicating that the production activities of manufacturing enterprises were rather active, and the production growth has accelerated. In view of different industries, the production indices of 13 industries including automobile manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, manufacturing of general equipment, fabricated metal products manufacturing, tobacco manufacturing etc. were above the threshold, and the production increased. The production indices of 8 industries including processing and coking of petroleum, ferrous metal mining and processing, foods, liquor, beverages and fine tea manufacturing, smelting and processing of non-ferrous metal ores etc. were below the threshold, and the production decreased.

In March, the new orders index was 52.3 percent, up by 2.2 percentage points month-on-month, and stayed above the threshold for six consecutive months, which indicating that the manufacturing market demand increased obviously. In view of different industries, the new orders indices of 15 industries including automobile manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, manufacturing of general equipment, tobacco manufacturing, textile industry etc. were above the threshold, and the market demand increased; the new orders indices of 6 industries including processing and coking of petroleum, ferrous metal mining and processing, foods, liquor, beverages and fine tea manufacturing etc. were below the threshold, and the market demand dropped back. The survey results showed that foreign new orders index which reflects the situation of foreign trade of manufacturing was 50.9 percent, increased 3.6 percentage points month-on-month, and returned to stay above the threshold, which indicating that the amount of exports of manufactured goods turned to increase from decrease; the import index was 48.9 percent, increased 0.8 percentage points month-on-month, and still stayed below the threshold, which indicating that the imports of raw materials used in the production of the manufacturing continued to decrease.

Main raw materials inventory index was 47.5 percent, down by 2.0 percentage points month-on-month, stayed below the threshold for two consecutive months, which indicating that the raw materials inventory decreased sharply. In view of different industries, only the main raw materials inventory indices of 4 industries including textile wearing apparel manufacturing, chemical fiber manufacturing, rubber and plastic manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing were above the threshold, and the main raw materials inventory increased; the indices of 17 industries including ferrous metal mining and processing, smelting and processing of non-ferrous metal ores, manufacture of raw chemical materials and chemical products, tobacco manufacturing, foods, liquor, beverages and fine tea manufacturing etc. were below the threshold, and the main raw materials inventory decreased.

Employed person index was 49.8 percent, increased 2.2 percentage points month-on-month, close to the threshold, and 1.6 percentage points lower over the historical average of the same period, which indicated that the employment continued to decrease, while the amount of decrease narrowed. In view of different industries, the employed person indices of 8 industries including electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, computer communications, electronic equipment and instrumentation manufacturing, textile wearing apparel manufacturing, textile industry, chemical fiber manufacturing, rubber and plastic manufacturing etc. were above the threshold, and the employment increased. The employed person indices of 13 industries including railways, ship, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing, tobacco manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, processing and coking of petroleum, ferrous metal mining and processing were below the threshold, and the employment decreased in varying degrees.

Supplier delivery time index was 51.1 percent, 2.8 percentage points higher month-on-month, and rose above the threshold, which indicated that the manufacturing supplier delivery time accelerated over last month.

Main raw material purchase price index was 50.6 percent, a sharp decrease of 4.9 percentage points month-on-month, stayed above the threshold for seven consecutive months,, which indicating that the raw material purchase price of manufacturing continued to rise, but the amount of increase in March decreased. In view of different industries, the main raw material purchase price indices of 15 industries including processing of timber and furniture manufacturing, tobacco manufacturing, railways, ship, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing, textile industry were above the threshold, and the purchase cost of enterprises increased; the main raw material purchase price indices of 6 industries including ferrous metal mining and processing, chemical fiber manufacturing, rubber and plastic manufacturing, manufacture of raw chemical materials and chemical products, computers, communications equipment and electronic equipment manufacturing, measuring instruments and machinery for cultural activity and office work manufacturing were below the threshold.

Production and business activities expectation index was 65.5 percent, up by 0.9 percentage points over last month, indicating that manufacturing enterprises were optimistic for the production and business activities expectation within the next three months.

1. Explanatory Notes

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises purchasing managers. It covers every links of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, logistics, and so on. It is one of the leading indices which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The threshold of PMI is usually using 50 percent as the cut-off point for economic performance. If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the manufacturing economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the manufacturing economy is in recession.

2.Statistical Coverage

The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing sector in the "Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities" (GB/T4754-2011). The survey sample was expanded from 820 to 3000 since January 2013. Due to the small sample size and lack of representativeness, some industries have been merged according to the similar homogeneity of industry, and there are 21 industries after merging.

3. Survey Methods

PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in manufacturing purchasing managers' survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing sector as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing sector. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.

The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.

4. Calculation Methods

The questionnaire of manufacturing purchasing managers survey covers 12 questions related to production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase prices, raw materials, inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, production and business activities expectation and etc.. Diffusion index was calculated for each question, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers.

PMI is a composite index, which was calculated according to five diffusion indices (group indices) and their weights. 5 group indices and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new orders index weighted 30 percent; production index weighted 25 percent; employees index weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weighted 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weighted 10 percent. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.

5. Classification of Eastern, Central and Western Regions

Eastern regions including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong, Hainan; central regions including Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan; western regions including Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang; north-eastern regions including Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang.

6. Seasonal adjustment

The purchasing managers' survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released PMI composite index and sub-indices are seasonally adjusted data.